Even when superhero cinema was at its absolute peak in 2018 and 2019, it was downright stunning when Todd Phillips’ “Joker” made greater than $1 billion on the world field workplace. It was the highest-grossing R-rated film ever as much as that time and remained so till “Deadpool & Wolverine” stole the file earlier this yr. Whereas the pandemic and final yr’s Hollywood strikes received in the best way, Joaquin Phoenix is lastly again because the famed DC Comics villain in “Joker: Folie a Deux.” This time, Woman Gaga is on board so as to add extra star energy as Harley Quinn. It is too early to say something overly definitive however it’s all however assured that the sequel will not fly as excessive as its predecessor. So the query turns into, how steep will the drop-off be?

Warner Bros. and DC’s “Joker 2” is a gap weekend north of $70 million, per early monitoring numbers through The Hollywood Reporter. That mentioned, early forecasts had steered a gap nearer to $100 million and, whereas these might have been overly bullish, the monitoring has come down in current weeks. Field Workplace Concept has the movie opening as little as $64 million and as excessive as $83 million. That is just about in keeping with THR’s numbers. Even on the excessive finish, it may fall in need of the $96.2 million home opening posted by “Joker” 5 years in the past.

“Joker” completed with $335.4 million domestically and an enormous $743.3 million internationally in its unique run. The important thing there was lengthy legs, with the movie holding very effectively week-to-week. If the sequel opens lighter and performs extra like a conventional superhero blockbuster, falling off extra sharply within the coming weeks, this may very well be vulnerable to struggling an analogous destiny to final yr’s “Aquaman and the Misplaced Kingdom.”

2018’s “Aquaman” grew to become the largest DC film in historical past taking in $1.15 billion worldwide. Nonetheless, “The Misplaced Kingdom,” launched 5 years later, opened to only over $27 million domestically, en path to a $434.3 million world end. Or, only a small fraction of what the unique made.

“Joker: Folie a Deux” facilities as soon as once more on Arthur Fleck (Phoenix), who’s being held at Arkham awaiting trial for his crimes as Joker. Whereas struggling together with his twin identification, Arthur stumbles upon real love. Oh, and did we point out that it is a musical? That is likely to be off-putting to sure viewers. The movie additionally stars Oscar nominees Brendan Gleeson (“The Banshees of Inisherin”) and Catherine Keener (“Get Out”), alongside Zazie Beetz, who reprises her function from the primary movie.

“Aquaman 2” making lower than 40% of what its predecessor made is a worst-case state of affairs. The numbers earlier than us do not recommend that “Joker 2” will fall off fairly as badly. That mentioned, if it opens nearer to $60 million and falls onerous in weekend two, we may simply be a film that finishes nearer to $500 million worldwide. That may nonetheless be tremendous sufficient however, bear in mind, Phillips’ lavish, musical sequel carries a reported $200 million finances, in comparison with the unique’s very cheap $60 million.

So, whereas the primary “Joker” was a tremendously worthwhile movie for Warner Bros., the follow-up is vulnerable to merely breaking even in its theatrical run, if issues go south. Let’s not neglect that final yr’s “Shazam! Fury of the Gods,” “The Flash,” and “Blue Beetle” all additionally flopped in theaters. DC is in the midst of a tough run. I am not standing right here predicting catastrophe, however I’m mentioning that presuming this to be a smash hit is likely to be a bit overeager.

For what it is value, “Folie a Deux” at present carries a 63% approval score on Rotten Tomatoes, which is kind of in keeping with the 69% the unique “Joker” holds. /Movie’s Invoice Bria referred to as the sequel a “compelling musical deconstruction” in his 8 out of 10 assessment. To what diploma the musical nature of the movie places off sure viewers stays to be seen. In any occasion, this may very well be an actual check for DC because it will get prepared for a reboot subsequent yr with James Gunn’s “Superman.”

“Joker: Folie a Deux” hits theaters on October 4, 2024.